(mid-level stability/instability parameters paint where the boundary is this morning)
With all that's going on during the beginning of a hectic holiday season, its amazing that the weather is staying pretty much right on schedule (no flight delays there); however, it has a slightly different agenda. Rain, lightning/thunder, wind, and clouds are its party favors..and crystal clear blue skies are when it's taking a rest. In this case, it's getting ready to 'party' .
In other words, we still seem to be on schedule for everything that has been discussed for several days now so there aren't any surprises. The only siggy change I'm very tempted to make is to boost the currently advertised chance of rain. Right now based on current/forecasted infromation I'm willing to bet that all (100%) of central Florida from coast to coast will get measurable rain between midnight Tuesday to midnight Wednesday. (not discounting some spotty amounts possible today). That's not saying it's going to happen everywhere at the same time...but it will 'happen'.
But in the short term, just wanted to add a couple sentences about today. It looks like the stationary boundary for the most part was shoved down to the latitude of Lake Okeechobee last night and for the most part has lost all identity other than what is referred to in the world of meteorology as instability and moisture indices in an averaged depth of the boundary layer. In other words, the quality of the air mass over the state paints the boundary but the wind directions are of little help since right at the surface they are out of a northerly component. I've included a graphic of the Theta-E (equivalent potential temperature) as an example. Other parameters such as the lifted index and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)..as well as opposing CIN all show this boundary. So despite what I've read that the boundary is way south of here, what's left of it still appears to be closer to home at a level about 8000 feet over our heads. With the ample instability (which is why I brought this up)..comes the possibility of instability type rain showers (convective rather than stratiform) to develop after heating of the day (from 2:30pm - 6:00pm) anywhere across the southern half of the state. Actually, as I type some rain showers are very near the coast of S. Brevard..and they've been progressing this way over the past few hours. The main thing that seems to be inhibiting greater areal coverage of rain for today is a ridge of high pressure nosing down as an extension of the Appalachians (which pushed the old boundary into south Florida at the surface)...but in the mid-levels I think it's still very close to home. I believe the leading edge (or southern extent of this ridge axis) will get eroded during the day...leaving everyone in a straight easterly wind component at the surface and westerly component overhead.
Also note the area of rain in the Eastern Gulf. That area is approaching for later today, and although I don't think it will hold together as currently manifested it does indicate a mid-level disturbance of sorts which could be just enough to stir the pot for later today and brew up more widespread showers. After this passes by we might actually see a break for a good six hours, but it's the bigger and now developing area in the western Gulf (as you can see on radar) that will be the real 'partier' from after midnight tonight through ALL of Wednesday. As mentioned repeatedly before, timing is an issue for exactly when and where the rain will fall...we'll have a better idea by tonight though.
Temperature wise, I observed that it was warmer at this time of day today than it has been for several days (at least on the porch)...and this could be adding some fuel to the fire for today further backing up the reasoning for a greater shower potential today ahead (and during) the approach and passing of that first feature in the Gulf. Not putting a percentage on this potential as it is a 'potential' and not a 'chance' as described yesterday. Let's leave it as a better potential...although I don't think it quite matches up as high for the chance that's being advertised, at least not for our daylight hours.
After Wednesday, in fact by early evening, the cold front will have passed Central Florida but drier air won't be real eager to move in during the beginning of the period Thursday...but enough will be established to fore go the mention of rain on Thanksgiving. Cloud cover could be an issue for at least the first half of the day Thanksgiving Day, but if it clears out sooner than that it's all the more to be thankful for.
Still think we will see little temperature change from morning and through the day Friday..with the warmest temperatures possible first thing in the morning. The coolest days will be Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 40s area wide (even the coast) and highs in the mid-60s. By Monday a slight onshore component to the wind which will have developed overnight should preclude the immediate coast from getting below 64 degrees (unlike our inland counterparts).
Due to the lengthiness of this post already, I'm foregoing mention of future outlooks until we get this one over with...but so far things still look like they could be active (say every 4-5 days for the following two systems).