Images show: ... the general forecast high temperature leading into Sunday at 1pm per the North American Model (NAM), the current surface temperature depiction at 9:45AM this New Year's Day morning, and the dailyrainfall totals at my location in Cape Canaveral, FL for last month showing a very dry total of only 0.54". The drought conditions continue since summer time.
TODAY: This will be a short forecast post today, given that there is nothing in significant changes or near term 'events' on the horizon for the next 5 days outside of the usual "fly doing the backstroke in the ointment" which will be an ongoing problem for several days to come as I'll briefly allude to below. Otherwise, more clouds for East Central Florida this morning as one views out the window can attest to. It's not cloudy everywhere though by any means. The sole bearers of the cloud cover at this time are main those from near Ft. Pierce to Port Canaveral, with a fresh influx of stratocumulus of more cottony looking nature on satellite imagery moving in on SE Florida rather than those of the more stratified/flattened look further north and over Brevard at this time of writing. If you can recall, I mentioned that stratocumulus clouds would likely become an issue in future posts about 5 days ago...and such it is been, "Oy Vey" (an exclamation of dismay or exasperation meaning "oh woe").
The low last night was similar to that of the night before at Patrick AFB, with cooler temperatures inland away from the east coast, courtesy of the clouds clearing out right before dark and the winds decoupling from the boundary layer inland. The high at PAFB yesterday as reported on the standard 'hour' was 70.9F as expected would be. Inland areas and further south fared better (warmer that is), and I'd bet that up by Port Canaveral it is was a little cooler than that felt at PAFB. As was the case yesterday, the high temperature today will be fully contingent upon clouds along the coast and when (or if) they clear. Away from the coast it will be a warmer day though, with many areas barely having any clouds at all with none on the approach from the west until well past peak heating and after dark, other than scattered stratocumulus formations with daytime heating with moisture trapped at the ever present inversion still showing up on the KSC sounding data at 5000 ft.
My inclination is to hypothesize that there will be more clouds than sun today along the coast for East Central Florida which will again temper down the forecast high temperature being made public on The Weather Channel for the A1A corridor, as has been the case for days! Otherwise, mainly a SSE wind becoming more southerly today and paralleling the coast by mid-late afternoon around the backside circulation of high pressure now located just to the east of North Carolina which will move further east as the storm system that generated the tornadoes and related severe weather over Arkansas/Missouri region yesterday progresses into that region. The same storm system has resulted in the issuance of Tornado Watches for the western Florida Panhandle and Southern Alabama late this morning.
Winds will become more SSW after dark and perhaps allow coastal temperatures to cool a few degrees compared to the past two mornings since they will not be off the water overnight for the most part, but no big deal (only by a degree or two). Tomorrow we'll be experiencing a mostly SSW-SW wind and partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies well ahead of the front which will be across the panhandle and extending SSW well into the southern Gulf, already in the process of 'hanging up' temporarily. Clouds will be at all atmospheric levels from stratocumulus to cirrostratus to fulfill the 'sky mural'. A Land breeze tomorrow should permit the area that has had the coolest afternoon high temperatures (NE Brevard) to finally catch up with everyone else despite the clouds as all things become equal.
the cold front will cross Central Florida early Monday morning in a much more elongated west to east fashion as it sinks south and becomes dynamically stretched to the limit, with all of the energy generating the dynamic weather of yesterday and forecast for today well to our northwest passing north of Central Florida by hundreds of miles. Temperatures on Monday will hang in the 60s all day from sunrise to set behind the front. Any precipitation related to the boundary (little to none is anticipated at this time), will occur behind the boundary a prove to be a continuing minor forecasting saga through Wednesday.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: Do believe the clouds will again become a problem behind the front, as the wind direction quickly swings back to the NE-E behind the front as yet another high pressure center approaches the mid-Atlantic region replacing the one that was just there. As such, over night low temperatures will remain above average with afternoon highs a bit below or just at average through Wednesday at which point another boundary will be approaching and linger close to Central Florida as it looks now. This front may or may not be of relative temperature significance as far as cooling is concerned heading toward the 6th or 7th, but we'll leave further discussion of this potential out for now (other than what I just wrote) due to inconsistencies between the models and the ramifications portrayed. But for short, the GFS has been depicting the cool down around the 6th or 7th for a few runs now, which implies that the negative phase of the North American Oscillation could be in for round two in the fun-n-games department for Florida. (insert frown emoticon HERE).
THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DECEMBER 2010 CLIMATIC SUMMARY IN REVIEW. ALL INFORMATION COURTESY OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THIS AREA LOCATED IN MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
DECEMBER 2010 WAS THE COLDEST ON RECORD.
...EXTREME COLD AIR OUTBREAKS LED TO THE COLDEST DECEMBER ON RECORD
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
..RAINFALL WAS ALSO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR DECEMBER 2010
A SERIES OF STRONG COLD FRONTS THAT BROUGHT NUMEROUS NIGHTS OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS MONTH LEAD TO THE COLDEST
DECEMBER ON RECORD. LITTLE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED THESE BOUNDARIES
WHICH ALSO LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
NOVEMBER WERE ENDED BY THE 1ST OF THE MONTH AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF STRONG FRONTS CROSSED THE AREA. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS CROSSED
THE AREA ON THE 5TH...12TH...18/19TH...AND 25/26TH WHICH REINFORCED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE MONTH. THREE SEPARATE
FREEZE EVENTS WERE EXPERIENCED THIS DECEMBER DUE TO THE VERY
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES. THESE EVENTS TOOK
PLACE ON THE MORNINGS OF THE 7-8TH...14-16TH...AND 27-29TH. ONE OF
THE EARLIEST HARD FREEZES (MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES) TO
OCCUR ON RECORD FOR DECEMBER WAS OBSERVED DURING THE 14TH AND 15TH
WITH HARD FREEZES OBSERVED AGAIN ON THE 28TH AND 29TH.
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES REMAINED BELOW NORMAL ALMOST
EVERY SINGLE DAY WITH DEPARTURES AS HIGH 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OCCURRING ON SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS RECORD LOWS
AND COOL HIGHS WERE BROKEN THROUGHOUT THE MONTH. IN THE END MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WERE 9
TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE VALUES NOT
ONLY SET THIS DECEMBER AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD...BUT SHATTERED THE
PREVIOUS COLDEST DECEMBER RECORDS BY A WHOLE 2 TO 4 DEGREES. RECORDS
FOR THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES IN THE AREA GO AS FAR BACK AS THE
EARLY 20S...HOWEVER EVEN COOP SITES THAT HAVE DATA EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE EARLY 1900S SUCH AS TITUSVILLE...FORT PIERCE AND DELAND
EXPERIENCED THEIR COLDEST DECEMBER ON RECORD BY A LARGE MARGIN.
THE MAIN CONTRIBUTING FACTOR FOR THESE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING DECEMBER WAS A PERSISTENT AND STRONG NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TYPICALLY BRINGS MORE COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.