Images: First image is the 85omb pattern forecast for this afternoon with current surface features overlaid for the SE states near Florida. These features are better depicted in the 4th image. Second image shows current radar with thunderstorms/lightning strikes showing up across the GOM and North Florida. Third image shows the current 'mean' steering flow. Anticipated areas of best rain chances are north of the 'highlighted' line.
CURRENT: Weakening low pressure just south of Panama City, FL is moving ENE toward Jacksonville with the warm front having just cleared them. Thunder reported last hour at JAX and Gainesville near the front. As expected, over night lows never really fell much if at all along the coast due to cloud cover and onshore flow, with the warmest spot east of US1 up and down the coast due to onshore flow and what one could argue as being a pseudo-thermally induced coastal trough / warm front and then passage of the warm front itself.
GENERAL SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Now that we're up to the current time of this writing (9AM), we'll observe the low pressure system to track across the panhandle with accompanying surface boundaries pivoting east to the NE-NNE and weakening around the main player low pressure system now over the South Central Plains (shown in first image). Perhaps the post from Saturday better depicted the next few days ahead. The Southeast system will ride up the eastern seaboard and merge with the Plains system on Tuesday as that one crosses the Ohio Valley. Net result will be some very active winter weather over all of the NE states Tuesday and Wednesday.
LOCALLY: As we see by the mid-upper level winds and in observing radar trends, all storm motion is uniform from the WSW - ENE and this is not expected to change today. As such, any thunder today should remain along and north of the highlighted line within this flow. The temperature observations showed cool 50 degree readings inland this morning with low-mid 60s at the coast, but for the most part all things will become equal south of the warm front before noon with everyone in the mid-upper 70s. The coolest spot will be along A1A north of Melbourne Beach due to the expected slight onshore, breezy wind component from a predominant SSE direction where closer to 70F-73F will be felt.
Skies are cloudy this morning, but some breaks in the low level deck may develop by noon for a brief time. But for the most part mostly cloudy to cloudy skies prevail. Should some breaks occur, we might see a quick moving rainshower along the Beach Line, especially from 2pm -8pm. Otherwise, SE-SSE winds will veer to due south by dark and remain elevated in the15-25mph range. Once again, the Beach Line prevails as the demarcation line to where it merges with I-4.
TUESDAY: The dashed 'cold front' shown in the Gulf will move into Central Florida and linger through the day very close to the I-4 to 528 corridor as all upper level dynamics and support for it move well away into the mid-Atlantic states and eventually just offshore the NE states. With all dynamics and deep layer moisture having exited the area, looking for mainly partly cloudy to cloudy skies continuing Tuesday , patchy at times and no rain. Another mild night tonight and Tuesday along/ahead of the stalled boundary with highs again in the mid-upper 70s very close to the Beach Line and points south.
Meanwhile, the low over the South Central Plains will be crossing the Ohio Valley with its attendant cold front moving rapidly toward Florida. The two fronts eventually merge over Central Florida overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning making for a cool start to the day with clearing skies. True cold frontal air advection throughout the day Wednesday on the wings of a WNW-NW wind.
WEDNESDAY/SATURDAY: Front clears the state with a cool day in store all day Wednesday and much cooler to cold Thursday through Saturday morning round the clock. As opposed to previous thinking, could be some freezing temperatures for many folks except those along the barrier islands Thursday and Friday mornings (at least). I have not waited for morning model runs for today's post, being more focused on the short-term to tackle what appeared could have been a severe weather event too close to home for comfort.
Winds will be more northerly though during this next cold spell as opposed to previous events which may spare the outer islands and down A1A toward Miami, with the worst of it all along and north of I-4 (at least at the beginning). It will be interesting to see what happens in the temperature department though as the northerly winds move in and persist as they advect cold air from the region that will be impacted by more snow (Tuesday and Wednesday) come Friday and Saturday. Temperatures may struggle to break the mid-upper 50s across much of Central Florida Thursday and Friday northh of the magic latitude of the Beach Line.