Images: (1) shows the current location of what remains way down south of the dreaded 'Snowzilla Beast' that impacted over 1/3 of the country the past 36 hours or so. The storm is exiting Maine now with the front delineating the leading edge of the cold air in its wake which is now encompassing much of the country east of the Rockies. The further east and south the front gets into Florida the less the boundary becomes discernible (2) latest satellite image shows a little correlation between the frontal boundary position and the mid-upper level clouds showing up on satellite imagery as the upper level support is fully non-existant over the Florida Peninsula and shows mostly in mid-level clouds along the boundary. [ the first image is a severe thunderstorm warned storm taken from the parking lot of Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF) at the Kennedy Space Center]
TODAY IS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AWARENESS DAY 2011 FOR FLORIDA. Information follows at the bottom of this post and is also available at the provided link: http://www.floridadisaster.org/kids/index2.htm
TODAY: Only a few tweaks to yesterday's (and the day before that one's) post, but nothing significant. High pressure from the surface through the mid-upper levels continues to reign supreme over Cuba, the eastern Bahamas and the SW Atlantic Ocean. As such, "Snowzilla of the Plains" is making the last of its primary focus known over Maine and cannot penetrate the Florida Peninsula in a very convincing manner, although another spoke of the storm continues to plague parts of the Ohio Valley with snow as it rotates around the Mother Storm. Behind the front shown in the first image overrunning warm mid-level air over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama has already begun with an icy/rain mix type precipitation where cold air was initially in place overnight since noon yesterday behind the front's initial south and eastward surge.
Locally, the front will ooze into Central Florida into the early evening with abundant streams of cirrostratus/cirrus clouds in much the same location as shown in the satellite image above. As you can see, much of South Florida and much of South Central is free of these clouds. The clouds aren't having too much of a negative impact on high temperatures this afternoon, but it would be warmer Central/North Central without them. We'll be looking at upper 70s/low 80s EXCEPT along A1A from near Sebastian Inlet to Port Canaveral where a light seabreeze component has developed the past hour, low 70s in those spots under the high clouds. No issues South Florida except some overnight low clouds/ fog in some spots. Otherwise, warm.
Rain chances today/tonight: There was a little area over the Loop Current this morning that persisted for quite sometime, but has lately dwindled...that activity is largely responsible for the high cloud streamers across Central this afternoon. Those might begin to pull out after 4:30pm or so. Meanwhile, there are some elements in place per the morning sounding, latest Local Data Integration System output, latest surface observations, and model guidance to justify a chance of a rain shower or even thunder from 4:00pm through 7:00pm along and north of Route 60 north to I-4. But close to yesterday's 'designated area' I believe the best chance of any thunder will be from Port Orange in Volusia southward to Melbourne, looking SW-WSW ward from that east most bound toward Southern Orange and into Osceola County.
But be advised, I have to look very hard to justify even mentioning this chance, but with a little digging we do see an area of higher instability developing in the clearer sky over SW Florida inland to SE of Tampa near Polk County which will be advected ENE during the day, but it will take all day to reach the east side. There is just a light enough sea breeze that should anything develop and move eastward it won't have much of a problem penetrating to the east and be perhaps enhanced just west of US1 especially since all the minor attributing factors which would support a storm will come together right as the surface frontal boundary shown in the image above is knocking along the Beachline Corridor.
But chances of this are low, just be advised that the chance of some rain or a storm (s) COULD manifest. Given it's only noon time now a lot could change between now and then...but not much. If anything, I expect to see the possibility go down further, namely because this will all occur in the absence of any trigger to get a storm going in the first place other than the front itself. If interested, keep your eyes pealed toward the WSW -SW later this afternoon, and remember the Lightning Awareness Guidance dispersed in the post on Monday.
TONIGHT/THURSDAY: Looks like our front will finally be fully into Central Florida and there it stays from around midnight tonight through early-mid morning Friday. The only change from two previous posts now is that it may not sink much further south than a Melbourne toward Kenansville line. It will be a very diffuse and shallow boundary with no change in the mid-upper levels at all. So shallow that the ENE wind behind the boundary might only be detectable in the closest 2-3000 feet from the ground with the ever present WSW winds prevailing above that level throughout its visit to Central Florida.
Either way, it's a matter of hen pecking a rather "dead" issue as far as fronts goes. Cooler on Thursday with lows and highs in the 60s behind the boundary (colder further north) and much warmer South. Some light rain here and there, but of little significance. It looks like Brevard (for example) might be perfectly bisected by the boundary with highs in mid-upper 60s North half while South Brevard could be in the mid-upper 70s. These conditions will be similar the whole way to the west across the state. Coldest spot anywhere Central will be along A1A behind (north of) the boundary..which means it might be only in the low-mid 60s in Cape Canaveral tomorrow while Melbourne is in the low 70s if not warmer. But clouds will be an issue except South Florida. In essence, best to be SOUTH of the boundary wherever that might be.
FRIDAY MORNING: Developing System in the South Central Gulf as another upper level system cuts across Texas lifts the boundary back north, warmer everywhere (mostly where it HAD BEEN cooler)...South Florida stays the same. Rain chance looks non-existent beyond mid morning but there could be plenty of clouds just about anywhere, potentially clearing by mid afternoon.
Due to the amount of typing I've already generated today, will refrain from going into the more extended time frame as it would be equally wordy. Lots of ups and downs, but no big impacts foreseen.
But for a super quick and dirty, we'll continue with no big temperature changes of recent days (other than Thursday north of the boundary wherever it ends up). Best chance of rain still looks like Saturday once the boundary lifts back north some time and another moves in, and again on Monday as we go through yet again another scenario like what was described above. The Monday / Tuesday time frame looks much more dynamic that what is going on today through Sunday.
On the other hand, the nicest day of all appears will be Sunday from sunrise to set (although not so sure about South Florida). Sunday might be their turn for the crummy overcast conditions. One last item of interest...could be chilly around Wednesday (but that is a week from now and a lot can change)...but it sure looks definite at this point in time....and unfortunately, convincing.
..FEBRUARY 2 IS TORNADO AND THUNDERSTORM AWARENESS DAY
TORNADOES ARE MORE FREQUENT IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN MOST PEOPLE
REALIZE. MOST OF OUR TORNADOES OCCUR DURING THE WET SEASON WHICH
TYPICALLY RUNS FROM LATE MAY THROUGH MID OCTOBER. THESE TORNADOES
ARE USUALLY SMALL AND BRIEF...RESULTING IN LITTLE PROPERTY DAMAGE
AND ARE NOT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE.
HOWEVER...LARGE LONG TRACK AND DEADLY TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED IN
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DRY SEASON. THE DEADLIEST TORNADO
OUTBREAK IN FLORIDA'S HISTORY OCCURRED THE NIGHT OF FEBRUARY 22 1998
WHEN SEVERAL LARGE TORNADOES SWEPT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA KILLING 42
PEOPLE...DESTROYING 700 STRUCTURES AND CAUSING AN ESTIMATED 100
MILLION DOLLARS DAMAGE. THREE OF THE TORNADOES WERE RATED EF3
INTENSITY WHILE ANOTHER 2 TORNADOES WERE RATED AS EF2. THEN...IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FEBRUARY 2 2007...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCED TWO EF3 TORNADOES OVER NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...KILLING 21
PEOPLE. THESE TORNADOES OCCURRED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN PEOPLE WERE
SLEEPING WHICH LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF FATALITIES.
TORNADOES GIVE MUCH LESS ADVANCE WARNING THAN HURRICANES...BUT EVEN
A FEW MINUTES CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH. HAVING
A NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A CRITICAL COMPONENT OF THE WARNING SYSTEM.
HAVING A WEATHER RADIO ALERT YOU OF AN APPROACHING
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...HAS SAVED LIVES.
WHEN A TORNADO THREATENS YOUR AREA...STAY INSIDE AND GO TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM WITHOUT WINDOWS. IN A MULTI STORY BUILDING...GO TO THE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTS DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER...OR
QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR LARGER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO
WARNINGS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE COMMUNICATED DIRECTLY FROM THE
MELBOURNE FORECAST OFFICE TO NOAA WEATHER AND ALL HAZARDS RADIO...TO
THE INTERNET AT WEATHER DOT G O V SLASH MELBOURNE...AS WELL AS TO
LOCAL MEDIA BY WAY OF THE EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM.