|Greens: Showers possible (thunder audible mainly west of I-95) Red: Better chance of mid-afternoon to early evening thunder-one might be strong, Blue: beast chance of one or two strong storms|
TODAY: As of 1pm I think a much weakened surface front which is becoming close to non-existent is almost right over my head as I type. Winds are near calm and it feels warm out there. Some puffy cumulus are visible just to the N-NW along the leading edge of the boundary. Otherwise, a surface high building in from the WSW-SW is cutting right thru the constructs in the vertical profile of the approaching front, leaving the mid-upper level portions well over head, but separated from just a surface boundary moving into Central Florida at the surface. The wind shift is due more from high pressure building in across the Panhandle rather than down from the North. Be that as it may..
Instability this hour is building near the Sarasota even this hour..with the axis running from near that location to Central Brevard County. Additional instability will mount through the mid afternoon, mostly toward West Central and West Florida. Behind the boundary, winds become ENE up to 3500 feet, then near calm in the ridge axis, with westerly wind (and quite brisk) in the upper levels. Precipitable water values per the SPC latest analysis are only running about 1.3" inches..just barely enough to sustain a thing. In fact, there is little to be found on radar. Not much more to say about the surface boundary, as today's weather will be more of a function of sea breeze convergence coupled with the steering flow and ample moisture to generate some convective activity beginning pretty soon now, but mostly after 3-4pm.
Showers could be felt or be near by about anywhere within the 'green' above..and in some locations, most likely west of I-95, thunder might be heard from a distance if not directly overhead the close to the spine of the state one is located. The best chance for a strong storm (if there is one) will be toward the West Side of state after 5-6pm when dewpoints begin to rise after peak heating. A strong storm could put down some frequent lightning, strong winds gusts, and pea hail at its worst in one or two select locations if the timing is right. Not expecting severe storms today. The strongest activity looks to occur over an open, rural area.
THURSDAY: The moisture associated with the wind field boundary will settle toward Miami Metro and the Keys. Showers could be found throughout the night toward Palm Beach County into mid-morning as the moisture field sinks south, favoring Palm Beach to Boynton Beach into late morning. Best chance of thunder tomorrow appears will be over Broward, Dade,and Collier Counties beginning early afternoon. By late in the date the high pressure responsible for the developing NE winds today further north will be crossing the state and into the Atlantic all evening. Winds will become ESE-SE over night with a return of atmospheric moisture to the more northern counterparts of the state.
FRIDAY: High pressure well to the east, and SE-SSE winds harvest moisture return to nearly all of the state. Another mid-upper level trough will be passing to the north of the state on Friday with the cold pool reaching into the north 1/2 half of the state, but not forgetting the South as well. On Friday, should the above materialize as forecast since yesterday but now more amplified, showers and thunderstorms could develop by early afternoon, some strong to marginally severe over the East Half of the state...any very isolated severe category storm will most likely be along and east of I-95 from Ft Pierce Beach to St. Augustine or JAX...but this is a new evolution (for example, two previous model runs favored solely (and might add strongly so) the Brevard County area). It looks guaranteed that cold air (the forecast 850mb temperatures are almost obscene) under a nearly uncapped environment would get the show rolling early and would therefore put a significant damper on the potential strength of storms should they hold off until late in the day. Winds aloft in the jet stream over Central are forecast to be in the 90-110 kt range...with Central in the right entrance region of the southern branch of the split-flow pattern that has been developing over the CONUS, adding in upper level divergence which is favorable for rising air currents in the mid-levels.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY: So far, looks like Friday will scour the atmosphere out. However, per my post 2 or 3 days ago...it was stated that thunder chances could exist Friday through Tuesday. The Weather Channel was showing this to be the case this morning (3 days later now)...but I'm not so sure about that now. Looks like it could be nearly a week before rain chances return beyond Friday as of this morning.