THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Much better 'chance' of rain and thunderstorms from north to south late morning through sunset Thursday, and even earlier on Friday. Although guidance shows temperatures to be very cold and winds aloft increasing through Friday as well with instability in place, there is a problem in regard for much beyond general to isolated coverage or rain and/or thunder will actually exist. That being, the potential for high level clouds to shut off the storm producing atmospheric mechanisms, in the absence of only pockets of deeper moisture. Additionally, most of the precipitable water on forecast soundings is showing up above or near 10.000 ft as opposed to low levels, thus negating the potential for low level moisture convergence in the absence of sea breeze boundaries.
The misnomer for both Thursday and early Friday will be if there is an ABSENCE of high clouds to start the days or heading into the early afternoon hours. There is a chance of strong to severe storms most anywhere over the state both days contingent upon at least the high cloud coverage scenario, the less amount of high clouds, the better chance of storms. ..coupled with the lack of any well defined (if any) sea breeze boundaries and fast steering currents from west to east. It may be that thunder will be restricted to off the east coast and just off or near the west coast on Friday and/or Thursday.
This scenario has been unfolding in the mid range models in various ways since Sunday, so we'll need to be monitoring both days for strong storm potential.
SATURDAY: Frontal boundary to press rapidly down the state Friday, followed by a period of stronger NE-ENE wind later Saturday afternoon and evening. Saturday does not look like the best kind of day for beach goers, with low level clouds possible although not entire cloudy by any means and possible light showers especially along the SE Coast. The atmosphere becomes quite dry above 7000 ft or so and dries through Sunday beyond Saturday evening. The most windy conditions appears will Friday afternoon through late afternoon Saturday.
EASTER SUNDAY: LOOKING BETTER than previous forecast model runs.
Continued ENE winds around 12-18mph with a few low clouds and morning lows close to 65F at the beaches and cooler inland with highs in the mid-upper 79Fs., with winds gradually dying on out further into Monday and eventually becoming more WSW by Tuesday as the next boundary (show above ) approaches. So far, no rain expected with that boundary due to the nature of this particular synoptic scale set up not allowing atmospheric moisture to recover to high enough levels to formulate rain making type clouds. A small cooling trend appears to be in the offing from Saturday onward. most notable inland Sunday/Monday mornings and toward the west side of the state.