|Latest satellite image Monday afternoon with rain chances (PRELIMINARY) For Wednesday afternoon into early evening|
Brief post today to provide lead way into a more active discussion period through Saturday at least. Suffice it to say for now, that cloudiness will begin to break up somewhat (or a lot) toward early evening depending on one's location. Really no changes to the current pattern outside by all appearances through Tuesday as well.
WEDNESDAY: Did you hear about the tornadoes in the Plains created by a storm system over the weekend? A bit hard not to have unless one has not watched any news. That frontal boundary will be moving in toward the Panhandle region on Wednesday, which by all perspectives is a long time for a front to progress that far in nearly 4 days. Regardless, it will not clear the state, but perhaps reaching North Central to Central at most. Net result will be a chance of showers and maybe thunder in the interior late day to evening as a result of a sea breeze collision. Active sea breezes with their seasonably cool air this time of year should prevent activity from reaching the coast with any gusto power as it appears now.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY: With the linger boundary somewhere near the north 1/2 of the state, shower and thunder chances will increase in this time frame. Activity may very well not be waiting to form until late day as is often the case. Current thinking is activity could begin as soon as noon time or shortly thereafter by Friday and shift toward the east coast, as well as on Saturday. It is too soon to pin-point exactly where and when storms will manifest with the greatest likelihood, but suffice it to say that by the time Sunday is over many areas could have received a good soaking at some point along the line, but not absolutely guaranteed. I would not be surprised to hear rain chances advertised at 50 to 6o percent though, with thunder thrown in, especially on the east half of the state. Details will follow on a case by day basis in follow ups.
BEYOND: Reversal of Fortune? GFS shows for a few runs now a BIG cool down by Monday and Tuesday mornings. Cool down relative to the weather the past few weeks. History tells us that the GFS tends to over-play morning lows in the longer range, so this will be watched for verification purposes as we head toward Friday and Saturday. If so, however, we could be seeing lows in the mid-upper 40Fs north 1/2 interior and low-mid 50Fs coastal for two mornings, with much cooler afternoon high temperatures. The gist is..hope one is gained acclimation to warm temperatures, because it could feel chilly.