|Graphic shows the mid levels, with two lows in the upper levels. The low over Florida is forecast for this afternoon in the mid levels and should be the primary monitoring area for more robust activity today|
For now, any strong storms could be from North Brevard and north toward Flagler County just in from the coast into the interiors, with outflows working south and east and west and every which way. Southwest winds in the mid-levels will steer activity off shore south of West Palm but further north the currents will be too light toward south of DAB (Daytona). There is no steering north of Mims in general and only a drift between that area south to Sebastian by later this afternoon toward the coast. Problem is, activity might get started soon enough that by later today the atmosphere will be worked over which makes further discussion a moot point, but would watch that low pressure area primarily due to some potential vorticity aloft acting as the primary triggering mechanism for actual thunderstorm activity. Winds aloft are very light, so any stronger to even severe storms will be pulse and brief.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: New pattern altogether as the northern upper level low shown east of JAX drifts WNW and gets absorbed into the mainstream synoptic scale flow. Steering SW to NE with greater low level instability means early start to showers and storms almost statewide.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY; Drier air aloft works toward South Florida first then begins to lift north in a fairly narrow band making late Friday into the Weekend conditional in regard to where storms will exist, with a resumption to more moisture at all levels by Monday (next week) and more SW Flow aloft. In short, typical atmospheric moisture availability will be in play other than late week into the weekend with the atypical diurnal variations typical of outflow west coast sea breeze and lake breeze interactions. Did we just say atypical is typical? ! As usual, some stronger storms are possible on any summer day, so that is not unusual...typically.